The core content of this paper: the output of medical intermediates, the market size of medical intermediates.
1. Chinese pharmaceutical intermediates industry has entered a mature stage of development
Pharmaceutical intermediate is a kind of fine chemical product in the production process of pharmaceutical chemical raw material to bulk drug or drug. The synthesis of chemical drug depends on high quality pharmaceutical intermediate. In other words, an intermediate is a material that is produced in the process of the API and must undergo further molecular changes or refining to become the API.
According to the regulations of the China Food and Drug Administration, pharmaceutical intermediates can be regarded as raw materials of drugs, and it is not necessary to apply for approval or batch number in accordance with the production rules of drugs. However, for the synthesis of drugs, the product must be of a certain level of quality and usually needs to be reviewed by the customer before it can be qualified as a supplier.
China's pharmaceutical intermediates industry has experienced four development stages in China, which are exploration stage (1980s), preliminary development stage (1990s to 2005), rapid development stage (2006 to 2015) and mature development stage (2016 to now). After more than 30 years of steady development, The chemical raw materials and intermediates needed for medical production in our country can basically be matched, only a few of the high-end intermediates with complex synthesis technology need to be satisfied through import. Moreover, because our country is rich in resources and the price of raw materials is lower, there are many intermediates realizing a large number of exports now.
2. Under the influence of COVID-19, the production of Chinese medical intermediates has rebounded
In the early stage of the development of the pharmaceutical intermediates industry, a large number of small chemical enterprises joined the field of pharmaceutical intermediates because of small investment, higher profit level than the general chemical products, and the market entry threshold is relatively low. According to the data released in Senxuan's prospectus, the production of Chinese medical intermediates increased before 2016. In 2016, the production of Chinese medical intermediates peaked at about 14.53 million tons. Since 2016, the marketization degree of Chinese pharmaceutical intermediates industry has been continuously improved, with the overall characteristics of small and medium-sized enterprises, concentrated production regions, stable business scale, low technology level, and serious product homogeneity. At the same time, influenced by environmental protection pressure, the output of Chinese pharmaceutical intermediates has declined. However, in 2020 and 2021, due to the impact of the epidemic, the international community has a strong demand for some anti-epidemic apis. Therefore, the demand for some apis has picked up, which also stimulates the development of the pharmaceutical intermediate industry to a certain extent. In 2018, the output of Chinese medical intermediates was 10.32 million tons. According to the comprehensive calculation of the demand of downstream API market, the development of medical intermediates market and the stimulus effect of the novel coronavirus epidemic, the output of Chinese medical intermediates in 2021 will be about 11.13 million tons.
Note: 2012-2018 data from Senxuan pharmaceutical prospectus, there is no official channel to release 2019-2021 output of China's pharmaceutical intermediates industry, 2019-2021 data for the estimated value.
3. In 2021, the market size of China's pharmaceutical intermediates industry will be about 220 billion yuan
The production method of pharmaceutical intermediates is similar to that of chemical raw materials, so Chinese chemical raw materials manufacturers usually produce pharmaceutical intermediates, and their development level is closely related to the development of chemical raw materials and chemical preparations. According to Senxuan pharmaceutical prospectus data showed that 2012-2017, Chinese pharmaceutical intermediates market size showed an overall rising trend, in 2018, Chinese pharmaceutical intermediates market size decreased to 2017 billion yuan. With the expiration of a large number of patent drugs, generic drugs will bring broad market space and good development opportunities for pharmaceutical intermediates. According to preliminary estimates, in 2021, the market size of China's pharmaceutical intermediates industry will be about 220 billion yuan.
Note: 2012-2018 data from Senxuan pharmaceutical prospectus, there is no official channel to release 2019-2021 Chinese pharmaceutical intermediates industry market size, 2019-2021 data for the estimated value.
