From the perspective of profit, the production profit level of DMF enterprises will gradually decline in 2022. The average profit in the first half of the year is about 9,077.59 yuan/ton. In the first quarter, DMF production profit was higher, with an average profit of more than 10,889.575 yuan/ton. With the continuous decline of DMF price in the second and third quarters, the production profit level of the enterprise was greatly reduced. After the fourth quarter, the production profit further shrank and the price dropped to the cost line.
At present, the profitability of DMF factories is weak, and the profits of supporting upstream monomethylamine and trimethylamine are good. Therefore, many enterprises implement the policy of reducing DMF to protect upstream methylamine. Up to now, the overall operating rate of the DMF industry has dropped to about 50%.
In the later stage, the current contradiction between methanol supply and demand is obvious. Although the gas head device gradually decreases negative parking, the main producing areas still maintain the pre-festival discharge rhythm, and the short-term terminal demand is still difficult to improve significantly. The methanol market trend is weak and volatile, and the cost end support is weak. In addition, the optimization of epidemic prevention policy has not yet reflected its impact on the market in the short term. Although the Spring Festival is approaching, it remains to be seen whether the downstream demand will follow up smoothly. Therefore, the rebound strength of DMF in December should not be overly optimistic.
