Recently, the caprolactam market bottomed out after entering July, and the rise was larger. As of August 8, the spot market price of caprolactam in the East China market was 13,200 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 1,450 yuan from the low point in July.
"With the double support of cost and supply, it is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to maintain a strong situation in the near future, and the price focus will follow the fluctuation of raw materials." Longzhong information caprolactam analyst Zhuang Xiaohua and other industry insiders believe.
Strong cost support
Pure benzene is the main factor affecting the price of caprolactam. "Since July caprolactam main raw material pure benzene prices have risen strongly, Sinopec pure benzene listed price increased a total of 1,000 yuan to 7200 yuan, an increase of 16.13%, excipients hydrogen peroxide, sulfuric acid, ammonia prices also rose 37.31%, 5.88%, 13.21%." The increase in the price of main auxiliary materials directly pushed up the comprehensive cost of caprolactam by 16.12%." Zhuo Chuang information caprolactam analyst Gong Yuqian analysis said.
The rise in international crude oil prices also boosted chemical prices. Recent international crude oil prices continue to rise, as of August 4, the New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas light crude oil futures main contract settlement price of $81.55 / barrel, up 1.82%; Ice Brent's main contract settled at $85.14 a barrel, up 1.07% from the previous month.
"Boosted by the rising price of crude oil, the improvement of its own supply and demand pattern, and the increase in demand for ethylbenzene driven by the consumption tax on refined oil products, the price of pure benzene continued to be high and volatile." Zhuang Xiaohua said.
In the later stage, the crude oil production cut support is still solid, the market supply is tight and China plans to introduce economic stimulus policies and other news is still good for the market. According to the analysis of Zhuo Chuang information, according to the current crude oil prices, the rate of change of crude oil at the beginning of the new pricing cycle is still in the positive range, and it is initially expected to be about 175 yuan. Overall, crude oil prices or high volatility, even rising expectations are still there, the raw material side of the pure benzene market support is still in.
"Excipient hydrogen peroxide resources are tight, the current inventory is at a low level, although there is cost pressure downstream, but the continuous procurement of enterprises does not have the conditions for substantial price cuts, short-term prices or will continue to be high and volatile." Longzhong information hydrogen peroxide analyst Xue Dongmei said.
Circulation supply is tight
"On July 21, the overall operating rate of caprolactam was 81.33%, and the other devices basically operated normally except for some devices that were stopped for a long time." In the short term, due to the low inventory of caprolactam in the early period, especially the shipment in the northern region is slightly tight, coupled with the current market is in an upward trend, downstream procurement enthusiasm is strong, the supply of caprolactam in some parts of the north is still slightly tight." Zhuang Xiaohua said.
"Cangzhou Xuyang Chemical Co., Ltd. 150,000 tons/year caprolactam overhaul device was originally planned to restart in early July, but the final delay made the July caprolactam supply recovery less than expected, superimposed individual early supply of spot enterprises into their own use, resulting in caprolactam spot volume is tight, production enterprises to maintain low inventory." Gong Yuqian said.
At present, Nanjing DSM Oriental Chemical Co., Ltd. 400,000 tons/year caprolactam plant is running at 50% load; At the end of July and early August, Zhejiang Juhua 100,000 tons/year plant and Hubei Sanning Chemical Co., Ltd. 140,000 tons/year caprolactam plant have a one-week maintenance plan; In August, a set of 100,000 tons/year of caprolactam in Sinopec Baling Petrochemical Co., Ltd. was cut down; China Pingmei What Group Nylon Technology Co., LTD. 200,000 tons/year device storage short-term maintenance plan, which will exacerbate the caprolactam market circulation tight trend.
Steady demand follow-up
"In July, the overall operating rate of downstream nylon 6(PA6) increased, and the demand for caprolactam increased. As the raw material inventory of PA6 enterprises remains low, caprolactam remains relatively stable and needs replenishment. The steady follow-up of demand is supportive of caprolactam prices." Gong Yuqian said.
"Recently, the capacity utilization rate of PA6 polymerization has risen in tandem with caprolactam, which has increased to around 76%; PA6 slicing and caprolactam production increased to close to 100,000 tons per week. As raw material inventories of PA6 enterprises remain low, caprolactam consumption will increase as the overall operating rate of PA6 polymerization increases." Zhuang Xiaohua said.
Although caprolactam has a single demand, its downstream PA6 needs are diverse. At present, under the support of the recovery of high-speed spinning demand, the start of PA6 polymerization is better, and the demand for PA6 high-speed spinning in the later stage is still optimistic. Conventional spinning and slicing enterprises follow up the pressure, but due to the low stock of raw materials in the terminal link, there are also some rigid procurement needs, and the conventional spinning and slicing enterprises in the north have more own raw materials, and the current construction remains stable, which supports the caprolactam market.
According to industry analysts, under the premise of overcapacity in the industry, the future market will still need to pay attention to the rising power of costs and the process of downstream transmission. At the same time, attention should also be paid to supply changes and downstream demand feedback.
