In November, maleic anhydride prices fell again after a small rebound, and smoothly fell to the lowest level in nearly two years, which highlights the downturn in the current market prosperity. In the future, the stabilization of market prices is not solid, and it is still necessary to wait for the reduction support from the supply side.
Maleic anhydride prices fell to a two-year lowAfter entering November, the price of maleic anhydride as a whole fluctuated and fell, and there were signs of stage stabilization in the middle of the year. As of the close of November 15, the price of liquid anhydride in the Shandong market closed at 5,350 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the price on October 31, down 4.46%. Since November, the domestic maleic anhydride price fell all the way after only a slight rise of 100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the decline was smooth in the middle, without significant resistance. By the middle of the year, as the price fell to the lowest level in nearly two years, maleic anhydride production enterprises were forced to carry out price support operations under the pressure of rising losses, in view of the risk of further decline in the future market, the procurement enthusiasm of downstream enterprises also recovered, market transactions began to pick up, and prices temporarily stopped falling.
The supply and demand side returned to a loose pattern, increasing the downward pressure on market prices
From the perspective of driving factors, the main pressure on the recent decline in maleic anhydride prices comes from the change in the relationship between supply and demand, that is, from tight to loose. In October, the domestic maleic anhydride equipment overhaul once increased, the industry started the load rate fell to a minimum of 42%, the supply reduction reduced the excess pressure on the market, reflected in the market price is in early October out of a wave of upward trend. However, this state could not be maintained for a long time. On the one hand, the maleic anhydride maintenance device has resumed production successively since late October, and the on-load rate of the maleic anhydride device has increased to near 49% in a straight line. On the other hand, during the same period, the market of downstream unsaturated resin products was depressed, and the industry started load rate fell to near 26%. Affected by the fluctuations at both ends of the supply and demand, the relationship between maleic anhydride supply and demand began to change to ease, and there was a surplus of supply again, which increased the negative impact on maleic anhydride price, and the market transaction atmosphere also cooled down, and eventually led to the continuous and smooth decline of maleic anhydride market prices.
The raw material end support is weak, and the negative impact is aggravated
The weak movement of the raw material n-butane price also suppresses the maleic anhydride market. The price of n-butane in 2024 is relatively stable, running at a relatively high range of 5000-5450 yuan/ton for most of the time, which also provides strong cost support while squeezing maleic anhydride profit margins from the top down. However, after late October, affected by the supply recovery brought about by individual alkylation and the resumption of gas separation units and the weak downstream demand, the domestic n-butane price went out of a wave of continuous downward trend, and broke the rare 5000 yuan/ton mark in early November, resulting in the downward shift of maleic anhydride cost line and increased the bearish sentiment of maleic anhydride downstream enterprises on the future market. However, after entering the middle of the n-butane output again reduced, the market to buy up the mentality gradually heating up, procurement warming led to the price focus gradually moved, the pressure of rising costs began to support maleic anhydride production enterprises to support the price sentiment.
Short-term rise and fall dilemma, pay attention to the supply side guidanceIn the future, the market is still lacking favorable support, and prices are in a dilemma. With the deepening of maleic anhydride product losses, although the production enterprises are generally unwilling to continue to reduce the price, they began to take a series of measures such as limiting sales to support the price to stop falling and stabilize. However, from the objective point of view, the downstream demand is still weak, the maleic anhydride supply side has no new production reduction plan, and the basic support of supply and demand is still insufficient in the face of price. Therefore, in the context of the downstream market gradually entering the traditional seasonal off-season, the repair of the maleic anhydride market in the future needs to wait for more reduction support from the supply side.
